Lesson 2 - Page 2 - Does economic development affect birth and death rates?

Many scientists believe that economic development is a major factor causing birth and death rates to fluctuate. They argue that with development, people gain better access to birth control; public health and sanitation improves; women become more independent; and food and basic necessities become more plentiful. These improvements, in turn, increase life expectancy and eventually prompt women to have fewer children.

What evidence is there to support the theory that economic development leads to a decline in death and birth rates? Some demographers point to the population histories of Western European countries as examples where populations that once grew rapidly experienced a graduate decline and stabilization of birth and death rates as a result of improved food supplies, public health, and technology. Historically, population changes in Western Europe corresponded to the following four stages, which are modeled on Figure 2:

Stage 1: Both birth and death rates are high and population grows slowly, if at all (Europe between pre-history and about 1650).

Stage 2: Birth rates remain high, but death rates fall sharply as a result of improved nutrition, medicine, health care, and sanitation. Population grows rapidly (Europe between 1650 and about World War I).

Stage 3: Birth rates begin to drop rapidly, death rates continue to drop, but more slowly now. Economic and social gains, combined with lower infant mortality, reduce the desire for large families (Europe between 1920 and 1960s).

Stage 4: Both birth and death rates are in balance, but at a much lower rate. Population growth is minimal if at all (Europe in the present).

Figure 2. Demographic Transition Model showing changes in birth and death rates and total population over time. Source: Haggett 1975.

The theory of demographic transition assumes that a country will move from a pre-industrial (agricultural) economic base to an industrial one, with a simultaneous decrease in family size and population growth. The slowing of population growth theoretically results from a better standard of living, improvements in health care, education, sanitation, and other public services.