Lesson 1 - Page 3 - Is the world's population growing too fast?

The situation in Bolivia and other developing countries has prompted the scientific community to raise questions about the impact of population growth on the environment. What does the future hold? Will more forests be destroyed under the pressures of rapidly increasing demand for land and other natural resources? Does a doubling of the Earth's population mean twice as much pollution and energy consumption?

It is true that population growth is viewed as a threat by some scientists, who worry that the Earth's environments will suffer as the world's population continues to grow. Their concerns are based on observations that the Earth's human population increased from approximately 2.25 billion in 1950 to an estimated 6.3 billion in 2003 (Population Reference Bureau 2003). Much of this growth has occurred in developing regions in Africa, Asia, and Latin America (Figure 1). Basic human activities such as driving cars, farming, and watching television consume natural resources, many of which are "non-renewable" fossil fuel resources such as coal and oil. Other resources, such as trees and water, take a long time for nature to replenish.

Some scientists fear that the human population is growing at a rate that threatens the future availability of essential resources such as land, food, and water. But not all scientists agree that current rates of population growth are unsustainable. In fact, the United Nations Population Fund notes that the rate of world population growth is declining and will likely continue to decline in coming decades (UNDF 2003). Other scientists suggest that population growth is not a problem because advancements in technology will increase the availability of food supplies and other basic resources that human populations need for survival.

Figure 1. World Population Growth, 1750-2150 (Population Reference Bureau 2001).

How do scientists determine whether population growth is a threat to the Earth's environment and to the welfare of nations? Some researchers believe that the rate of population growth can exceed a carrying capacity -- the maximum number of people a given area can support with food and other essential resources. When the total number of individuals in a particular location exceeds the carrying capacity, the result is sometimes called overpopulation.

Dr. Norman E. Borlaug is a scientist who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970 for creating new varieties of grains that helped to feed more of Earth's population. Read what he had to say about the dangers of population growth:

Those of us who work on the food production front, I believe, have the moral obligation to warn the political, religious, and educational leaders of the world of the magnitude and seriousness of the arable land, food, and population problems that loom ahead. . . . Why does mankind continue to inadvertently and irresponsibly try to see how many additional people can be "heaped" onto the planet Earth? Why do we continue to apparently always believe that future, newer, and better technologies will expand the carrying capacity of our planet, while at the same time assure an improving standard of living for all? It appears to me that we are behaving in a most irrational and irresponsible manner.

The author Charles C. Mann has summarized a contrasting position, as follows:

In 1972 a group of researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology . . . used advanced computer models to project that the world would run out of gold in 1981, oil in 1992, and arable land in 2000. Civilization itself would collapse by 2070. The projections failed to materialize. Birth rates dropped; food production soared; the real price of oil sank to a record low. . . . humanity faces population problems but has a good shot of coming out okay in the end. . . . Along with each new mouth comes a pair of hands. . . . Twenty-five years ago, 3.4 billion people lived on Earth. Now the United Nations estimates that 5.3 billion do-the biggest, fastest increase in history. But food production increased faster still. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN, not only did farmers keep pace but per capita global food production rose more than 10 percent from 1968 to 1990. The number of chronically malnourished people fell by more than 16 percent. . . . An FAO study published in 1982 concluded that by using modern agricultural methods, the Third World could support more than 30 billion people.

Dr. Lakshman Yapa, a geographer at Pennsylvania State University, offers yet another view. He acknowledges that rapid population growth can present challenges to nations that are still developing, but argues that poverty is not caused by there being too many people in a place. Instead, Yapa argues that poverty mainly results from misguided and destructive land-use policies and practices by the wealthy and powerful. For example, Yapa points out that multinational corporations and wealthy families often control large amounts of land in developing nations, forcing the poor and landless to live in overcrowded situations on marginal lands. To outsiders viewing images of poor and hungry people living in overcrowded conditions, it seems reasonable to blame their condition on out-of-control population growth rates. But Yapa argues that the world has enough resources to meet the basic needs of the poor, and that the rich and powerful countries of the world have created scarcity in developing regions by wastefully consuming huge amounts of resources to support luxurious lifestyles.

Yapa (2000) believes that usage of the term "overpopulation" and "carrying capacity" contributes to a mindset that (a) takes attention away from an examination of how existing land and other resources are used, (b) minimizes the role of resource problems created by high consumption levels of wealthy people, and (c) transforms a segment of the population, usually the poor, into the source" of the problem. He and other like-minded scientists believe that the most effective way to meet the basic needs of the poor would be to implement policies that emphasize traditional forms of production, protect workers, and redistribute wealth and land to the poor. But does this mean that people living in wealthy, developed countries would have to sacrifice? Some scientists think so:

Given the quantity of resources needed, using present technologies, to provide a middle-class lifestyle to millions in the first world, it is clear that a comparable level of resources use and lifestyle cannot extrapolated to all the third world's people (even if we assume that improvements in technology will be made). If we accept that humankind should live in balance with nature's renewable stock of resources, and if we admit that the world's demographic future holds a population of 10 to 15 billion by the year 2050, it is obvious that our ideas about ourselves and our lives need to change.... a radical rethinking of everyone's lifestyle, and a re-visioning of our future, are in order (Porter and Sheppard 1998).

So, what is to be done?

Collaborative Learning Activity 1.2 - Is the world producing enough food?

In the next activity, your team will examine geographic trends in world food production and discuss whether current levels of production are enough to stave off future global demand for food.

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Summary

In this lesson, your team learned how population change could be measured using geographic tools and data. The first activity guided your team through the steps of dividing data and making a choropleth map. The map helped you decide whether population growth is greatest in the mountainous or forested parts of Bolivia. By making maps, geographers are able to understand better how an issue such as deforestation is related to the economic, social, and political context in which it occurs.

Your team also considered different views held by scientists about the effects of population growth on the Earth's environment. The second activity in this lesson compared international trends in food production and population growth. Although food production in different world regions has generally increased at similar rates, there has been much more variability in the rate of population growth from place to place. In countries where populations are growing rapidly, there is some concern that this growth threatens the local availability of resources. Indeed, some scientists warn that the Earth has a carrying capacity that limits the number of people that the environment can support. But not all scientists share this view. Whereas some scientists point out that the environmental "doomsday" scenarios that were predicted many decades ago have failed to materialize, others believe the world's poor are the victims of a global economy that distributes power and resources unequally. In the upcoming lessons, your team will learn more about the economic, political, and environmental dimensions of population change.

Review of Materials Due

Before your team proceeds to the next lesson, each local group should:

1. Submit one complete set of maps from the "Population in Bolivia" packet to your instructor (Collaborative Learning Activity 1.1).
2. Post answers to all "blue box" discussion questions in the Group Discussion Board.

Your team should begin Lesson 2 on the date assigned by your instructor.